Tuam Tshoj txoj kev lag luam yuav loj hlob zuj zus hauv xyoo 2021. Kev tsim khoom lag luam yuav tsav qhov kev xav tau rau cov khoom siv raw. Tsheb, kev tsim kho vaj tse thiab lwm yam kev lag luam yuav tswj hwm qhov kev xav tau zoo rau electrolytic txhuas thiab hlau. Sab kev thov yuav tsim kev txhawb nqa zoo thiab zoo rau kev lag luam petcoke.
Nyob rau thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, kev ua lag luam hauv tsev petcoke tau ua lag luam zoo, thiab tus nqi ntawm nruab nrab thiab siab sulfur petcoke tau qhia txog kev nce siab hauv kev hloov pauv. Txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog rau lub Tsib Hlis, vim muaj kev muab khoom tsawg thiab kev thov muaj zog, tus nqi coke txuas ntxiv mus nce siab. Thaum Lub Rau Hli, tus nqi ntawm coke pib nce nrog kev muab khoom, thiab qee tus nqi coke poob qis, tab sis tus nqi lag luam tag nrho tseem tshaj qhov tib lub sijhawm xyoo tas los.
Tag nrho cov kev lag luam hauv peb lub hlis thawj zaug zoo heev. Kev txhawb nqa los ntawm kev lag luam sab kev thov nyob ib puag ncig Lub Caij Nplooj Ntoos Hlav, tus nqi ntawm cov roj av coke tau qhia txog kev nce siab. Txij li thaum kawg Lub Peb Hlis, tus nqi ntawm nruab nrab thiab siab-sulfur coke thaum ntxov tau nce mus rau qib siab, thiab kev txais cov haujlwm downstream tau qeeb qeeb, thiab tus nqi coke hauv qee lub chaw ua roj tau poob qis. Raws li kev saib xyuas petcoke hauv tsev tau tsom mus rau hauv peb lub hlis thib ob, kev muab khoom ntawm petcoke tau poob qis heev, tab sis kev ua tau zoo ntawm sab kev thov tau txais, uas tseem yog kev txhawb nqa zoo rau kev lag luam petcoke. Txawm li cas los xij, txij li Lub Rau Hli pib rov pib tsim khoom nrog kev kho dua tshiab ntawm lub chaw ua roj, cov txhuas electrolytic hauv North thiab Southwest Tuam Tshoj feem ntau tau tshaj tawm cov xov xwm phem. Tsis tas li ntawd, qhov tsis txaus nyiaj hauv kev lag luam carbon nruab nrab thiab tus cwj pwm bearish rau kev ua lag luam txwv kev yuav khoom ntawm cov tuam txhab downstream. Kev lag luam coke tau rov qab nkag mus rau theem kev sib koom ua ke.
Raws li kev tshuaj xyuas cov ntaub ntawv ntawm Longzhong Information, tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm 2A roj av coke yog 2653 yuan / ton, tus nqi nruab nrab txhua xyoo nce ntawm 1388 yuan / ton hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm xyoo 2021, nce ntawm 109.72%. Thaum kawg ntawm lub Peb Hlis, tus nqi coke tau nce mus txog qhov siab tshaj plaws ntawm 2,700 yuan / ton hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, nce ntawm 184.21%. Tus nqi ntawm 3B roj av coke tau cuam tshuam loj heev los ntawm kev saib xyuas hauv nruab nrab ntawm cov chaw ua roj. Tus nqi ntawm coke txuas ntxiv nce hauv lub quarter thib ob. Thaum nruab nrab Lub Tsib Hlis, tus nqi ntawm coke tau nce mus txog qhov siab tshaj plaws ntawm 2370 yuan / ton hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, nce ntawm 111.48%. Lub khw muag coke uas muaj sulfur ntau tseem tab tom ua lag luam, nrog rau tus nqi nruab nrab hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo yog 1455 yuan / ton, nce ntxiv ntawm 93.23% xyoo-rau-xyoo.
Vim yog tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw, tus nqi sulfur calcined coke hauv tebchaws hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm xyoo 2021 tau qhia txog kev nce qib. Kev lag luam tag nrho ntawm kev ua lag luam calcining tau zoo heev, thiab kev yuav khoom ntawm sab kev thov tau ruaj khov, uas yog qhov zoo rau kev xa khoom ntawm cov lag luam calcined.
Raws li kev tshuaj xyuas cov ntaub ntawv ntawm Longzhong Information, nyob rau thawj ib nrab ntawm xyoo 2021, tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm cov coke uas muaj sulfur calcined yog 2,213 yuan / ton, nce 880 yuan / ton piv rau thawj ib nrab ntawm xyoo 2020, nce 66.02%. Hauv peb lub hlis thawj zaug, tag nrho cov lag luam muaj sulfur siab tau pauv zoo. Hauv peb lub hlis thawj zaug, cov coke calcined dav dav nrog cov ntsiab lus sulfur ntawm 3.0% tau nce 600 yuan / ton, thiab tus nqi nruab nrab yog 2187 yuan / ton. Cov ntsiab lus sulfur ntawm 3.0% vanadium cov ntsiab lus ntawm 300PM calcined coke tau nce 480 yuan / ton, nrog tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm 2370 yuan / ton. Hauv peb lub hlis thib ob, kev muab cov roj av coke nruab nrab thiab siab sulfur hauv Suav teb tau txo qis thiab tus nqi ntawm coke txuas ntxiv nce. Txawm li cas los xij, cov tuam txhab carbon downstream muaj kev txaus siab yuav khoom tsawg. Raws li qhov txuas nruab nrab hauv kev lag luam carbon, cov tuam txhab calcining muaj tsawg lub suab hauv nruab nrab ntawm kev lag luam carbon. Cov txiaj ntsig tsim khoom txuas ntxiv poob qis, kev nyuaj siab ntawm tus nqi txuas ntxiv nce, thiab cov nqi calcined coke thawb nce. Tus nqi ntawm kev nce qeeb qeeb. Txij li Lub Rau Hli, nrog rau kev rov qab los ntawm cov khoom siv coke nruab nrab thiab siab sulfur hauv tsev, tus nqi ntawm qee cov coke poob nrog nws, thiab cov txiaj ntsig ntawm cov tuam txhab calcining tau hloov mus ua qhov txiaj ntsig. Tus nqi pauv ntawm cov khoom thauj dav dav calcined coke nrog cov ntsiab lus sulfur ntawm 3% tau hloov kho rau 2,650 yuan / ton, thiab cov ntsiab lus sulfur ntawm 3.0% thiab cov ntsiab lus vanadium yog 300PM. Tus nqi pauv ntawm calcined coke nce mus rau 2,950 yuan / ton.
Xyoo 2021, tus nqi hauv tebchaws ntawm cov anodes ua ntej ci yuav txuas ntxiv nce, nrog rau kev nce ntxiv ntawm 910 yuan / ton txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog rau Lub Rau Hli. Txij li Lub Rau Hli, tus nqi yuav khoom ntawm cov anodes ua ntej ci hauv Shandong tau nce mus txog 4225 yuan / ton. Raws li cov nqi khoom siv raw txuas ntxiv nce, qhov siab ntawm kev tsim khoom ntawm cov tuam txhab anode ua ntej ci tau nce. Thaum Lub Tsib Hlis, tus nqi ntawm cov thee tar pitch tau nce siab heev. Txhawb nqa los ntawm cov nqi, tus nqi ntawm cov anodes ua ntej ci tau nce siab heev. Thaum Lub Rau Hli, raws li tus nqi xa khoom ntawm cov thee tar pitch poob qis, tus nqi ntawm roj av coke tau hloov kho ib feem, thiab cov txiaj ntsig tsim khoom ntawm cov tuam txhab anode ua ntej ci tau rov qab los.
Txij li xyoo 2021, kev lag luam electrolytic aluminium hauv tebchaws tau tswj hwm tus nqi siab thiab cov nyiaj tau los siab. Cov nyiaj tau los ib tuj ntawm tus nqi electrolytic aluminium tuaj yeem ncav cuag txog 5000 yuan / ton, thiab tus nqi siv peev xwm tsim khoom electrolytic aluminium hauv tebchaws tau tswj hwm ntawm kwv yees li 90%. Txij li Lub Rau Hli, tag nrho qhov pib ntawm kev lag luam electrolytic aluminium tau poob qis me ntsis. Yunnan, Inner Mongolia, thiab Guizhou tau nce qib kev tswj hwm ntawm cov lag luam siv hluav taws xob ntau xws li electrolytic aluminium. Tsis tas li ntawd, qhov xwm txheej ntawm electrolytic aluminium destocking tau txuas ntxiv mus ntxiv. Txij li thaum kawg Lub Rau Hli, cov khoom muag electrolytic aluminium hauv tebchaws tau txo qis mus txog li 850,000 tons.
Raws li cov ntaub ntawv los ntawm Longzhong Information, cov khoom tsim tawm hauv tsev electrolytic aluminium hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm xyoo 2021 yog kwv yees li 19.35 lab tons, nce 1.17 lab tons lossis 6.4% xyoo-rau-xyoo. Hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, tus nqi nruab nrab ntawm cov khoom siv aluminium hauv Shanghai yog 17,454 yuan / ton, nce 4,210 yuan / ton, lossis 31.79%. Tus nqi lag luam electrolytic aluminium txuas ntxiv hloov pauv txij lub Ib Hlis mus txog rau lub Tsib Hlis. Thaum nruab nrab Lub Tsib Hlis, tus nqi khoom siv aluminium hauv Shanghai tau nce siab txog 20,030 yuan / ton, mus txog qhov siab tshaj plaws ntawm tus nqi electrolytic aluminium hauv thawj ib nrab ntawm lub xyoo, nce 7,020 yuan / ton xyoo-rau-xyoo, nce 53.96%.
Kev kwv yees yav tom ntej:
Tseem muaj cov phiaj xwm txij nkawm rau qee lub chaw ua roj hauv tsev hauv ib nrab xyoo tom ntej, tab sis vim tias kev txij nkawm ua ntej ntawm cov chaw ua roj pib tsim cov coke, tag nrho cov khoom siv petcoke hauv tsev tsis muaj kev cuam tshuam ntau. Cov tuam txhab carbon hauv qab tau pib ruaj khov, thiab kev lag luam electrolytic aluminium kawg tuaj yeem nce kev tsim khoom thiab rov pib dua lub peev xwm tsim khoom. Txawm li cas los xij, vim yog kev tswj hwm lub hom phiaj dual-carbon, qhov kev loj hlob ntawm cov zis yuav tsum txwv. Txawm tias thaum lub teb chaws pov tseg cov khoom khaws cia kom yooj yim rau kev muab khoom, tus nqi ntawm electrolytic aluminium tseem tswj hwm qhov sib txawv ntawm kev hloov pauv siab. Tam sim no, cov tuam txhab electrolytic aluminium tau txiaj ntsig, thiab lub davhlau ya nyob twg tseem muaj kev txhawb nqa zoo rau kev lag luam petcoke.
Xav tias nyob rau hauv ib nrab xyoo tom ntej, vim muaj kev cuam tshuam ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov, qee tus nqi coke yuav raug kho me ntsis, tab sis feem ntau, cov nqi roj av coke hauv tsev nruab nrab thiab siab sulfur tseem khiav ntawm qib siab.
Lub sijhawm tshaj tawm: Lub Xya Hli-23-2021