1. Txheej txheem cej luam ntawm koob coke kev lag luam hauv Suav teb
Txij li thaum lub Plaub Hlis, tus nqi lag luam ntawm koob coke hauv Suav teb tau nce 500-1000 yuan.Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm shipping anode cov ntaub ntawv, lub mainstream tuam txhab uas muag muaj txaus xaj, thiab kev tsim thiab muag ntawm lub zog tshiab tsheb tau nce, ua kom ob qho tib si ntau lawm thiab muag khoom booming.Yog li ntawd, koob coke tseem yog qhov chaw kub hauv kev ua lag luam, thiab kev ua lag luam ntawm coke ua lag luam yog nruab nrab, tab sis kev lag luam pib xav tias yuav nce mus rau lub Tsib Hlis, thaum cov khoom xa tuaj ntawm cov khoom lag luam coke yuav zoo dua.Raws li lub Plaub Hlis. 24th, tus nqi ntau ntawm koob coke kev lag luam hauv Suav teb yog 11,000-14,000 yuan / tuj ntawm coke siav;Ntsuab coke yog 9,000-11,000 yuan / tuj, thiab cov nqi tseem ceeb ntawm cov khoom siv roj coke yog 1,200-1,500 USD / ton;Coke yog 2200-2400 USD / ton;Tus nqi tseem ceeb ntawm kev lag luam coke coke yog 1600-1700 USD / ton.
2. lub downstream pib nce mus, thiab qhov kev thov rau koob coke yog zoo.Hais ntawm graphite, lub davhlau ya nyob twg hluav taws xob rauv hlau ua lag luam pib tsawg tshaj li qhov xav tau.Thaum kawg ntawm lub Plaub Hlis, kev khiav hauj lwm tus nqi ntawm hluav taws xob rauv hlau ua lag luam nyob ib ncig ntawm 72%.Raws li kev cuam tshuam ntawm qhov xwm txheej tsis ntev los no, qee thaj chaw tau raug kaw, thiab kev tsim khoom thiab kev xav tau ntawm cov hlau mills tseem raug txwv, thiab cov hlau mills tau pib qis dua.Tshwj xeeb tshaj yog, qee qhov hluav taws xob rau hluav taws xob steel mills, nyob rau hauv qhov cuam tshuam ntawm qhov tsis muaj zog hlau hlau xav tau, qee lub tshuab hluav taws xob hluav taws xob steel mills tswj lawv cov khoom ntawm nws tus kheej, thiab kev noj cov graphite electrodes qeeb.Cov mills steel feem ntau yuav cov khoom ntawm kev thov.Kev ua lag luam kev ua lag luam ntawm graphite electrode yog qhov nruab nrab, thiab tag nrho cov khoom xa tuaj ntawm koob coke siav coke yog tiaj.Raws li cov ntaub ntawv anode, kev tsim kho lub Plaub Hlis yuav tsum nyob ib ncig ntawm 78%, uas yog me ntsis siab dua li lub Peb Hlis.Txij li thaum pib ntawm 2022, cov khoom siv anode tau dhau graphite electrodes los ua lub ntsiab ntws ntawm koob coke hauv Suav teb.Nrog rau kev nthuav dav ntawm kev lag luam nplai, qhov kev thov ntawm cov khoom siv anode rau cov khoom siv raw khoom lag luam tau nce zuj zus nyob rau ib hnub, thiab kev txiav txim ntawm rab koob coke txaus, thiab qee cov tuam txhab tsim khoom tsis txaus.Tsis tas li ntawd, tus nqi roj av coke ntawm cov khoom muaj feem cuam tshuam tau nce siab tsis ntev los no, thiab cov nqi ntawm qee cov khoom yog ze rau ntawm koob coke.Noj Fushun Daqing roj av coke ua piv txwv, los ntawm lub Plaub Hlis 24th, ex-Factory tus nqi ntawm kev ua lag luam tau nce los ntawm 1100 yuan / tuj piv nrog rau thaum pib ntawm lub hli, nrog rau ntau yam ntawm 17%.Txhawm rau txo tus nqi lossis nce tus nqi yuav ntawm koob coke, qee cov khoom lag luam anode tau ntxiv qhov kev thov rau ntsuab coke.
3. tus nqi raw khoom yog siab, thiab koob coke nqi yog siab.
Tus nqi thoob ntiaj teb ntawm cov roj av tau cuam tshuam los ntawm kev ua tsov rog Lavxias-Ukrainian thiab cov xwm txheej pej xeem cuam tshuam, thiab tus nqi hloov pauv mus rau sab saud, thiab tus nqi ntawm slurry tau nce raws li.Raws li lub Plaub Hlis 24th, tus nqi lag luam nruab nrab yog 5,083 yuan / tuj, nce 10.92% txij thaum pib lub Plaub Hlis.Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm thee tar, tus nqi tshiab ntawm thee tar ua lag luam tau tsa, uas txhawb tus nqi ntawm thee tar suab.Raws li lub Plaub Hlis 24th, tus nqi lag luam nruab nrab yog 5,965 yuan / tuj, nce 4.03% txij thaum pib lub hli.Tus nqi ntawm cov roj slurry thiab thee tar pitch yog qhov siab, thiab kev lag luam tus nqi ntawm koob coke yog siab.
4. kev ua lag luam outlook forecast
Kev Muag Khoom: Nws cia siab tias cov khoom lag luam koob coke yuav nce ntxiv rau lub Tsib Hlis.Ntawm qhov tod tes, roj-raws li koob coke ntau lawm lag luam pib ib txwm, thiab tsis muaj kev npaj kho rau lub sijhawm.Ntawm qhov tod tes, qee lub tuam txhab kev saib xyuas ntawm cov thee-based koob coke pib tsim khoom.Lub caij no, cov cuab yeej tshiab tau muab tso rau hauv kev tsim khoom thiab coke tau tsim, thiab cov khoom lag luam tau nce ntxiv.Zuag qhia tag nrho, kev khiav hauj lwm tus nqi ntawm koob coke kev lag luam nyob rau hauv lub Tsib Hlis yog 45% -50%.Qhov tseem ceeb tshaj plaws yog: ntawm ib sab, tus nqi ntawm cov khoom siv raw yog khiav ntawm qib siab, thiab tus nqi coke yog siab;Ntawm qhov tod tes, kev tsim kho ntawm cov khoom siv hauv qab anode thiab graphite electrodes yog nce zuj zus nyob rau ib hnub, kev txiav txim tsis txo qis, thiab kev lag luam ntawm kev lag luam ntsuab coke yog nquag.Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, tus nqi roj av coke ntawm cov khoom muaj feem cuam tshuam tau nce siab, thiab qee qhov kev lag luam hauv qab tuaj yeem nce kev yuav cov koob coke, thiab qhov kev thov sab txuas ntxiv yog qhov zoo.Nyob rau hauv cov ntsiab lus, nws yog kwv yees hais tias tus nqi ntawm siav coke nyob rau hauv Tuam Tshoj lub koob coke khw yuav yog 11,000-14,500 yuan / ton.Raw coke yog 9500-12000 yuan / ton.(Source: Baichuan Cov Ntaub Ntawv)
Lub sij hawm xa tuaj: Plaub Hlis-25-2022